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Chapter 2. Saturated array extensions and conditional locality

This chapter follows Definition 3.1, Proposition 3.2, Lemmas 3.3–3.4, and Proposition 3.5 of R (pp. 7–13). It starts with the full family of ordered arrays from Chapter 1. The argument enlarges the local state while preserving conditional product laws, then uses saturation to obtain joint independence of rows and exact conditional kernels for individual cells and grouped rectangles.

Fixed source, from page 7

The complete states at a few positions are added to the parameters. These positions are called parent slots; in a square array, they become parent rows. This additional information is distinct from the original local parameter u(y)u(y) at each cell. A slot is simply a position indexed by the finite set II.

What remains to be proved

Suppose k≥3k\ge 3 is the least order at which mixing fails. Mixing below order kk gives the ordered array laws ρn\rho _{n}, indexed by InI^{n}, where I={1,…,k}I=\{1,\ldots,k\}. Fixing the last axis index at one slot gives a plane. Under ρn\rho _{n}, any family of at most k−1k-1 last-axis planes is independent as a family of complete random vectors. Independence here means a joint product law, beyond pairwise independence.

The ordered limits first give this conclusion along the last axis. For n=2n=2, this is independence of proper subfamilies of whole columns; the corresponding statement for whole rows is still unavailable. Interchanging rows and columns cannot supply it: the source explicitly assumes no symmetry under permutations of the axes.

Section 3 of R enlarges both the local states and their parameters while keeping the resulting object in the specified array class. Saturation then reduces the new observations in the extension to observations in the original object. This is how row independence is obtained. The difficulty is that independence can be lost after conditioning on additional information. The proof below spells out the local dependence of conditional kernels that prevents this problem.

1. Admissible array objects and three kinds of observation

Definition 3.1 (pp. 7–8) specifies standard Borel probability systems (Y,m0,TY)(Y,m_{0},T_Y) and (U,ν,TU)(U,\nu ,T_U), factor maps κ:Y→X\kappa :Y\to X and u:Y→Uu:Y\to U intertwining time, and, for each n≥0n\ge 0, an array law mnm_{n} on YInY^{I^n}. Here I0I^{0} is a singleton, so level zero is the local state law m0m_{0}.

The following conditions must hold together:

  1. mnm_{n} is invariant under the simultaneous coordinatewise action of TYT_Y, and its image under coordinatewise κ\kappa is the fixed law ρn\rho _{n}. For n≥1n\ge1, fixing any axis index at any slot gives mn−1m_{n-1}. Every proper subfamily of last-axis planes is independent under mnm_{n}.
  2. For n≥1n\ge1, put Pn=σ(u(yv):v∈In)\mathcal P_n=\sigma (u(y_v):v\in I^{n}). For each proper subfamily J⊊IJ\subsetneq I, the planes remain independent given the full parameter array Pn\mathcal P_n. The conditional law of plane jj depends only on its own parameter subarray and equals the conditional law of mn−1m_{n-1} given that subarray.
  3. Under m0m_{0}, the variables κ(y)\kappa (y) and u(y)u(y) are independent. If m0=∫Uηu dν(u)m_0=\int_U\eta_u\,\mathrm d\nu(u), this is equivalent to κ∗ηu=μX\kappa _*\eta _u=\mu _X for ν\nu-almost every uu.

Condition 2 has the following precise test-function formulation. For every proper subfamily JJ and bounded plane tests FjF_j,

E[∏j∈JFj | Pn]=∏j∈JE[Fj∣Pn−1,j]. \mathbb E\left[\prod_{j\in J}F_j\,\middle|\,\mathcal P_n\right]=\prod_{j\in J}\mathbb E[F_j\mid\mathcal P_{n-1,j}].

Here, Pn−1,j\mathcal P_{n-1,j} contains only the parameters of plane jj. In particular, for a single jj, the right-hand side still depends only on that plane's parameters. This locality requirement is an essential part of the condition.

For an extension θ:Y′→Y\theta :Y'\to Y, the map θ\theta must preserve all mnm_{n} and κ\kappa, and the old parameter u∘θu\circ \theta must be a factor of the new parameter u′u'. Thus each of the following old σ\sigma-algebras pulls back into the corresponding new σ\sigma-algebra:

Pn;On,j=σ(yv:vn≠j);Gn,j=Pn∨On,j. \mathcal P_n;\quad\mathcal O_{n,j}=\sigma(y_v:v_n\ne j);\quad\mathcal G_{n,j}=\mathcal P_n\vee\mathcal O_{n,j}.

Here On,j\mathcal O_{n,j} records all complete states outside the missing plane, including more than their parameters.

2. What saturation actually provides

Proposition 3.2 (pp. 8–9) states that every object has an extension MM with the following property. For every further admissible extension of MM with map θ\theta, every fixed n≥1n\ge 1 and F∈L2(mn)F\in L^{2}(m_{n}), and D\mathcal D equal to Pn\mathcal P_n or one of On,j\mathcal O_{n,j} and Gn,j\mathcal G_{n,j}, the identity below holds. Write θn\theta_n for the coordinatewise factor map at level nn, namely θn((yv′)v∈In)=(θ(yv′))v∈In\theta_n((y_v')_{v\in I^n})=(\theta(y_v'))_{v\in I^n}. It is not an iterate of θ\theta obtained by composition nn times.

E[F∘θn∣D′]=E[F∣D]∘θn.(4) \mathbb E[F\circ\theta_n\mid\mathcal D']=\mathbb E[F\mid\mathcal D]\circ\theta_n.\tag{4}

Only extensions already shown to belong to the same array class may be compared here. Membership cannot be assumed and then established by (4). Lemma 3.4 avoids this circularity by induction on the number of parent slots.

Closure under inverse limits

Consider a countable tower of extensions. Take the compatible path spaces for the local states and the parameters, with time acting coordinatewise. Countable products of standard Borel spaces, and their Borel subsets of compatible paths, are again standard Borel. The consistent finite-stage laws determine the limit probability laws. Commutativity of the factor diagrams, face consistency along every axis, and time invariance hold first for finite-stage tests and then at the limit by monotone-class approximation.

Unconditional independence passes to the limit in the same way: pull all tests on finitely many planes back from one common finite stage, factor the product expectation there, and then approximate arbitrary bounded tests on the limit. The argument also preserves independence of the local XX coordinate κ(y)\kappa (y) from the parameters.

The conditional product identity needs a separate verification. Fix J⊊IJ\subsetneq I, and first take all FjF_j from one finite stage rr. For every s≥rs\ge r, the identity at stage ss is

E[∏j∈JFj | Pn(s)]=∏j∈JE[Fj∣Pn−1,j(s)]. \mathbb E\left[\prod_{j\in J}F_j\,\middle|\,\mathcal P_n^{(s)}\right]=\prod_{j\in J}\mathbb E[F_j\mid\mathcal P_{n-1,j}^{(s)}].

The parameter σ\sigma-algebras on both sides increase with ss. By forward martingale convergence, the left-hand side converges in L2L^{2} to conditional expectation given the full limit parameters; every factor on the right also converges in L2L^{2}. If ∣Fj∣≤1|F_j|\le 1, the product error satisfies

∥∏jaj−∏jbj∥2≤∑j∥aj−bj∥2. \left\|\prod_j a_j-\prod_j b_j\right\|_2\le\sum_j\|a_j-b_j\|_2.

Thus the limit on the right is the product of the limit conditional expectations. For a bounded FjF_j on the limit, let Fj(s)F_j^{(s)} be its conditional expectation onto the information from plane jj at stage ss, using that plane's complete-state σ\sigma-algebra. These approximations are still tests on the same plane. They converge in L2L^{2} with a uniform supremum bound. Contractivity of conditional expectation and the same product estimate pass the identity to the limit. This preserves all of condition 2, including its full conditional product law.

Scheduling the bounded energy increments

At every stage and for every nn, the space L2(mn)L^{2}(m_{n}) is separable. Choose a countable dense family of bounded tests. At fixed nn there are only 1+2k1+2k kinds of data. List all combinations of introduction stage, level, test, and kind of data in a countable schedule in which every introduced combination is revisited infinitely often.

For a fixed test FF, use ∥E[F∣D]∥2\|\mathbb E[F|\mathcal D]\|_{2} as the energy. It is nondecreasing under admissible extensions and bounded by ∥F∥2\|F\|_{2}. At each visit, choose an admissible extension whose energy is within εq\varepsilon _q of the supremum over all currently available admissible extensions, with εq↓0\varepsilon _q\downarrow 0. The supremum need not be attained. The identity extension ensures that the set of candidates is nonempty.

Let M∞M_\infty be the inverse limit of the countable tower and ZZ any further admissible extension. Composition preserves extensions, so ZZ is also an admissible candidate over every finite stage. At every sufficiently late visit to an old test, the following comparison holds.

Its projection norm in ZZ is bounded by the current supremum. That supremum is at most the projection norm at the chosen next stage plus εq\varepsilon _q, and the next-stage norm is bounded by the norm in M∞M_\infty. Hence the norm in ZZ exceeds the norm in M∞M_\infty by at most εq\varepsilon _q. All tests are pulled back to the spaces being compared.

Letting the visit index tend to infinity, q→∞q\to \infty, shows that ZZ cannot increase the energy. Finite-stage tests are dense in the inverse-limit L2L^{2} space. For any FF, we have the contraction estimate

∣∥E[F∣D]∥2−∥E[H∣D]∥2∣≤∥F−H∥2. \left|\|\mathbb E[F\mid\mathcal D]\|_2-\|\mathbb E[H\mid\mathcal D]\|_2\right|\le\|F-H\|_2.

This estimate extends the conclusion to all FF. Finally, the pullback of the old D\mathcal D is contained in D′\mathcal D', so orthogonal projections satisfy the Pythagorean identity

∥E[F∘θn∣D′]∥22−∥E[F∣D]∘θn∥22=∥E[F∘θn∣D′]−E[F∣D]∘θn∥22. \begin{aligned}&\|\mathbb E[F\circ\theta_n\mid\mathcal D']\|_2^2-\|\mathbb E[F\mid\mathcal D]\circ\theta_n\|_2^2\\&\quad=\|\mathbb E[F\circ\theta_n\mid\mathcal D']-\mathbb E[F\mid\mathcal D]\circ\theta_n\|_2^2.\end{aligned}

The left-hand side vanishes, proving (4). For each given further extension, this is an identity of equivalence classes. It makes no choice of one pointwise conull set common to all possible extensions; such a choice is unnecessary and does not follow by countable intersection.

3. A conditional-independence lemma

Lemma 3.3 (pp. 9–10) concerns standard random elements EE, O1,…,OsO_{1},\ldots ,O_s, and BB, with Ej=ej(E)E_j=e_j(E) and Aj=aj(Ej,Oj)A_j=a_j(E_j,O_j). Assume

Law⁡(O1,…,Os∣E)=⨂j=1sKj(Ej,⋅),Law⁡(B∣E,O1,…,Os)=L(E,A1,…,As;⋅). \begin{aligned}\operatorname{Law}(O_1,\ldots,O_s\mid E)&=\bigotimes_{j=1}^s K_j(E_j,\cdot),\\\operatorname{Law}(B\mid E,O_1,\ldots,O_s)&=L(E,A_1,\ldots,A_s;\cdot).\end{aligned}

The second identity is a separate hypothesis. It says that the conditional law of BB depends on each OjO_j only through the corresponding AjA_j.

Let QjQ_j be the conditional law of OjO_j given (Ej,Aj)(E_j,A_j). Then

Law⁡(O1,…,Os∣E,A1,…,As,B)=⨂j=1sQj(Ej,Aj;⋅).(5) \operatorname{Law}(O_1,\ldots,O_s\mid E,A_1,\ldots,A_s,B)=\bigotimes_{j=1}^s Q_j(E_j,A_j;\cdot).\tag{5}

Here is the full verification. The kernel Kj(Ej,⋅)K_j(E_j,\cdot ) is also the law of OjO_j given EjE_j, because EjE_j is a function of EE and the kernel depends only on EjE_j. For a value xx of EjE_j, let Mj(x,⋅)M_j(x,\cdot ) be the image of Kj(x,⋅)K_j(x,\cdot ) under o↦aj(x,o)o\mapsto a_j(x,o). Disintegration with respect to (Ej,Aj)(E_j,A_j) gives

Kj(x,do) δaj(x,o)(dα)=Mj(x,dα) Qj(x,α;do). K_j(x,\mathrm{d}o)\,\delta_{a_j(x,o)}(\mathrm{d}\alpha)=M_j(x,\mathrm{d}\alpha)\,Q_j(x,\alpha;\mathrm{d}o).

This identity holds for Law⁡(Ej)\operatorname{Law}(E_j)-almost every xx. Substituting x=ej(E)x=e_j(E) therefore preserves it on a Law⁡(E)\operatorname{Law}(E)-conull set. Writing α=(α1,…,αs)\alpha=(\alpha_1,\ldots,\alpha_s), the original joint law becomes

Law⁡(E)(de)[⨂j=1sMj(ej(e),dαj)]L(e,α;db)[⨂j=1sQj(ej(e),αj;doj)]. \operatorname{Law}(E)(\mathrm{d}e)\left[\bigotimes_{j=1}^s M_j(e_j(e),\mathrm{d}\alpha_j)\right]L(e,\alpha;\mathrm{d}b)\left[\bigotimes_{j=1}^s Q_j(e_j(e),\alpha_j;\mathrm{d}o_j)\right].

The first three factors give the law of (E,A,B)(E,A,B), and the last factor is precisely the conditional kernel in (5). The fact that adding BB leaves the conditional kernels of the OjO_j unchanged rests on the locality hypothesis in the second identity. Without it, the conclusion is generally false.

4. Incorporating the first axis into the local state

In Lemma 3.4 (pp. 10–11), the old object is now saturated. Fix any R⊆IR\subseteq I with ∣R∣≤k−2|R|\le k-2, and choose a∈I∖Ra\in I\setminus R. Set

Y′=YI,m0′=m1,θa((yc)c∈I)=ya,u′((yc)c∈I)=((u(yc))c∈I,(yc)c∈R). \begin{gathered}Y'=Y^I,\quad m_0'=m_1,\quad \theta_a((y_c)_{c\in I})=y_a,\\u'((y_c)_{c\in I})=\bigl((u(y_c))_{c\in I},(y_c)_{c\in R}\bigr).\end{gathered}

Here RR indexes the parent slots, while aa is the projection position retaining the old XX factor. The law of u′u' and the coordinatewise time action define the new parameter system. It retains all old parameters and adds the complete states at positions in RR; the complete states at other positions are not added.

At level nn, use the old law mn+1m_{n+1} and put the first axis c∈Ic\in I inside the new local state. The remaining indices w∈Inw\in I^{n} form the new array. Write the old states as yc,wy_{c,w}. Admissibility requires every defining condition to be checked at every nn.

Checks that do not require induction

  • The map θa\theta _a retains ya,wy_{a,w} pointwise. Face consistency along every axis of the old array gives its law mnm_{n}, so all old level laws are preserved. The XX factor is κ(ya)\kappa (y_a).
  • The new parameter contains u(ya)u(y_a) and thus determines the old parameter. All diagrams commute with the coordinatewise time actions.
  • The last axis of the new level is the last axis of the old level. Unconditional independence of proper plane subfamilies, time invariance, and consistency of the other faces are inherited directly.
  • The new local XX coordinate is independent of the new parameter. Under the old law m1m_{1}, condition on the full old parameter p=(u(yc))cp=(u(y_c))_c. The set R∪{a}R\cup\{a\} has at most k−1k-1 positions, and its joint kernel is ⨂c∈R∪{a}ηpc\bigotimes _{c\in R\cup\{a\}}\eta _{p_c}. After further conditioning on the states (yc)c∈R(y_c)_{c\in R} added to the parameter, the conditional law of yay_a remains ηpa\eta _{p_a}. Since κ∗ηpa=μX\kappa _*\eta _{p_a}=\mu _X, the law of κ(ya)\kappa (y_a) given the full new parameter is always μX\mu _X.

Only the last-axis conditional product identity given the new parameters remains. When R=∅R=\varnothing, the full new parameter is exactly the full old parameter, so the required identity is the old conditional product identity at level n+1n+1. This establishes the induction base without using saturation.

Nonempty RR: first establish locality of the conditional kernel

Assume inductively that the construction gives admissible extensions for every parent set smaller than ∣R∣|R|, every permitted projection position, and every level. Fix n≥1n\ge 1 and a missing last-axis position j0j_{0}.

Use the following notation:

E=(u(yc,w))c,wE=(u(y_{c,w}))_{c,w} is the full old parameter; Oj=(yc,w:wn=j)O_j=(y_{c,w}:w_n=j), for j≠j0j\ne j_0, is a complete observed last-axis plane; O=(Oj)j≠j0O=(O_j)_{j\ne j_0}; EjE_j is the parameter array of OjO_j itself; Aj=(yc,w:c∈R,wn=j)A_j=(y_{c,w}:c\in R,w_n=j) consists of the states in OjO_j added to the parameters; and B=(yc,w:c∈R,wn=j0)B=(y_{c,w}:c\in R,w_n=j_0) consists of all states in the missing plane added to the parameters.

In the old object, given EE, the OjO_j are independent and each conditional kernel depends only on EjE_j. To apply (5), we must prove

Law⁡(B∣E,O)=L(E,(Aj)j≠j0;⋅).(7) \operatorname{Law}(B\mid E,O)=L\bigl(E,(A_j)_{j\ne j_0};\cdot\bigr).\tag{7}

Enumerate RR as c1,…,crc_{1},\ldots ,c_r and reveal the missing pieces Bct=(yct,w:wn=j0)B_{c_t}=(y_{c_t,w}:w_n=j_{0}) in that order. At step tt, set R′={c1,…,ct−1}R'=\{c_1,\ldots,c_{t-1}\}. Since ∣R′∣<∣R∣|R'|<|R| and ct∉R′c_t\notin R', the induction hypothesis already supplies an admissible extension with this smaller parent set and projection position ctc_t.

The observation algebras for this extension can be identified explicitly:

  • The pullback of the old Gn,j0\mathcal G_{n,j_0} is σ((u(yct,w))w,(yct,w:wn≠j0))\sigma ((u(y_{c_t,w}))_w,(y_{c_t,w}:w_n\ne j_{0})).
  • The new Pn′\mathcal P_n' is σ(E,(yl,w)l∈R′,w∈In)\sigma (E,(y_{l,w})_{l\in R',w\in I^{n}}).
  • The new On,j0′\mathcal O_{n,j_0}' is σ(O)\sigma (O), because the new local state contains the entire internal axis.
  • The new Gn,j0′\mathcal G_{n,j_0}' therefore equals σ(E,O,BR′)\sigma (E,O,B_{R'}). The part of R′R' in the observed planes is already included in OO.

For the missing piece BctB_{c_t}, take any bounded test FF and regard it as a test on the projected old level nn. Applying saturation (4) to this already admissible extension gives equation (8) of the source:

E[F(Bct)∣E,O,BR′]=E ⁣[F(Bct) | (u(yct,w))w∈In,(yct,w:wn≠j0)].(8) \begin{aligned}&\mathbb E[F(B_{c_t})\mid E,O,B_{R'}]\\&\quad=\mathbb E\!\left[F(B_{c_t})\,\middle|\,(u(y_{c_t,w}))_{w\in I^n},(y_{c_t,w}:w_n\ne j_0)\right].\end{aligned}\tag{8}

The right-hand side is a fixed conditional kernel from the old law mnm_{n}. It depends only on EE and the part of internal row ctc_t contained in OO. Since ct∈Rc_t\in R, that part is included in the AjA_j. In particular, the kernel no longer depends on the previously revealed parent-state pieces BR′B_{R'} in the missing plane.

Write A=(Aj)j≠j0A=(A_j)_{j\ne j_0}, and denote this kernel by Hct(E,A;⋅)H_{c_t}(E,A;\cdot). The chain rule for conditional distributions and repeated use of the preceding identity give

Law⁡((Bct)t=1r∣E,O)=⨂t=1rHct(E,A;⋅). \operatorname{Law}\bigl((B_{c_t})_{t=1}^r\mid E,O\bigr)=\bigotimes_{t=1}^r H_{c_t}(E,A;\cdot).

For example, for the test ∏t≤rbt(Bct)\prod _{t\le r}b_t(B_{c_t}), first condition on E,O,Bc1,…,Bcr−1E,O,B_{c_1},\ldots ,B_{c_{r-1}} and replace the last factor by HcrbrH_{c_r}b_r. This depends only on E,AE,A and can be taken outside the next conditional expectation. Repetition gives the product of the HctbtH_{c_t}b_t. Product tests determine the joint kernel, establishing (7).

Every use of saturation has involved an extension with fewer parent slots. Only after the extension for the current set RR has been proved admissible may it be used for larger parent sets. Thus the extension being constructed is never used to justify its own admissibility.

Recovering the conditional product identity

Apply Lemma 3.3 with EE, OjO_j, AjA_j, and BB. Given EE, all the AjA_j, and BB, the OjO_j remain independent. The conditional kernel of plane jj is the kernel of the old law mnm_{n} given (Ej,Aj)(E_j,A_j).

Now σ(E,(Aj)j≠j0,B)\sigma (E,(A_j)_{j\ne j_{0}},B) is exactly the full parameter algebra at new level nn, and (Ej,Aj)(E_j,A_j) is exactly the parameter of new plane jj. This plane has the old level-nn law mnm_{n}, which is also the new level-n−1n-1 law. The kernel is therefore precisely the one required by Definition 3.1.

This proves the assertion first for the k−1k-1 planes obtained by omitting one position. Every smaller proper subfamily lies in such a family, and its kernel follows by taking a marginal of the product kernel. Since nn was arbitrary, the conditional identity holds at every level, completing the induction.

5. Deriving row independence

For Proposition 3.5 (pp. 11–13), write the square as ya,jy_{a,j}, with row index aa and column index jj. Fix the full parameter E=(ua,j)E=(u_{a,j}), the row parameters pa=(ua,j)jp_a=(u_{a,j})_j, and the column parameters qj=(ua,j)aq_j=(u_{a,j})_a. Denote the conditional law of the old m1m_{1} given the parameter tuple pp by λp\lambda _p.

The definition already gives independence of every proper subfamily of whole columns given EE, with column jj having kernel λqj\lambda _{q_j}. The row assertion follows next.

Fix R⊆IR\subseteq I, ∣R∣≤k−2|R|\le k-2, and a∉Ra\notin R, and use the admissible extension just constructed by incorporating the first axis. At its first level, take a bounded test of the whole row Ya,IY_{a,I}. For this test FF, saturation with the P1\mathcal P_1 data gives:

E[F(Ya,I)∣E,YR,I]=∫F dλpa.(14) \mathbb E[F(Y_{a,I})\mid E,Y_{R,I}]=\int F\,\mathrm{d}\lambda_{p_a}.\tag{14}

Choose any r≤k−1r\le k-1 distinct rows a1,…,ara_{1},\ldots ,a_r and reveal them in order. Before row tt is revealed, there are only t−1≤k−2t-1\le k-2 parent rows, so (14) applies. Successive conditional expectations give

E[∏t=1rFt(Yat,I) | E]=∏t=1r∫Ft dλpat. \mathbb E\left[\prod_{t=1}^r F_t(Y_{a_t,I})\,\middle|\,E\right]=\prod_{t=1}^r\int F_t\,\mathrm{d}\lambda_{p_{a_t}}.

This proves a conditional product law for every proper subfamily of whole rows. Independence of all kk rows is neither established nor needed.

The conditional product condition in the same extension gives Proposition 3.5(2): given EE and the parent rows YR,IY_{R,I}, every proper subfamily of columns is independent, and each column is further conditioned only on its own parent entries YR,jY_{R,j}.

Finally, saturation for G1,j0\mathcal G_{1,j_0} gives equation (12) of the source:

Law⁡(ya,j0∣E,YR,I,YI,I∖{j0})=λpa(dya,j0∣Ya,I∖{j0}).(12) \operatorname{Law}(y_{a,j_0}\mid E,Y_{R,I},Y_{I,I\setminus\{j_0\}})=\lambda_{p_a}(\mathrm{d}y_{a,j_0}\mid Y_{a,I\setminus\{j_0\}}).\tag{12}

The left-hand side observes other rows, whereas the right-hand side uses only the remaining entries and parameters of the same row. This local cell kernel is needed for the operator rectangle identity in the next chapter.

6. From the single-cell identity (12) to the grouped identity (13)

The last step on pp. 12–13 concerns grouping. Partition the rows into three nonempty sets P,A,BP,A,B and the columns into three nonempty sets r,s,tr,s,t. Fix EE and write ΛA=⨂a∈Aλpa\Lambda _A=\bigotimes _{a\in A}\lambda _{p_a}. The required identity is

Law⁡(YA,t∣E,YP,I,YI,r∪s)=ΛA(dYA,t∣YA,r,YA,s).(13) \operatorname{Law}(Y_{A,t}\mid E,Y_{P,I},Y_{I,r\cup s})=\Lambda_A(\mathrm{d}Y_{A,t}\mid Y_{A,r},Y_{A,s}).\tag{13}

First fix one missing column j0j_{0}. Given EE, all whole rows in PP, and every other column, reveal the entries for a∈Aa\in A in column j0j_{0} one at a time. When entry aa is revealed, the parent rows comprise PP and the previously revealed rows in AA. Their other entries are already known from the observed columns. There are at most

∣P∣+∣A∣−1=k−∣B∣−1≤k−2. |P|+|A|-1=k-|B|-1\le k-2.

parent rows. Thus (12) applies at every step, and its right-hand side does not depend on previously revealed missing entries. Successive multiplication gives equation (15) of the source:

Law⁡(YA,j0∣E,YP,I,YI,I∖{j0})=⨂a∈Aλpa(dya,j0∣Ya,I∖{j0}).(15) \operatorname{Law}(Y_{A,j_0}\mid E,Y_{P,I},Y_{I,I\setminus\{j_0\}})=\bigotimes_{a\in A}\lambda_{p_a}(\mathrm{d}y_{a,j_0}\mid Y_{a,I\setminus\{j_0\}}).\tag{15}

Now take j0∈tj_{0}\in t, put J=t∖{j0}J=t\setminus\{j_0\} and C=r∪sC=r\cup s, and retain W=YA,JW=Y_{A,J}. The set C∪JC\cup J consists of exactly k−1k-1 columns. Proposition 3.5(2) makes them independent given EE and all whole rows in PP. Within any column of JJ, the row set P∪AP\cup A is proper because BB is nonempty. Hence, given its PP entries, the marginal of its AA entries is still ⨂a∈Aηua,j\bigotimes _{a\in A}\eta _{u_{a,j}}. Consequently,

Law⁡(W∣E,YP,I,YI,C)=⨂a∈Aj∈Jηua,j.(16) \operatorname{Law}(W\mid E,Y_{P,I},Y_{I,C})=\bigotimes_{\substack{a\in A\\j\in J}}\eta_{u_{a,j}}.\tag{16}

In (15), integrate out the other states in the JJ columns, retaining only WW. The right-hand side depends on those JJ columns only through WW, so its kernel is unchanged. The joint conditional kernel of (W,YA,j0)(W,Y_{A,j_{0}}) is therefore the product marginal in (16) followed by the row kernels in (15).

Under ΛA\Lambda _A, the rows are independent. Within each row, C∪JC\cup J is a proper coordinate set and has the same product marginal. Composing these two kernels therefore gives exactly the conditional law of ΛA\Lambda _A given YA,CY_{A,C}, proving (13). If J=∅J=\varnothing, the first kernel is the empty product, and the calculation still applies.

The other grouped assertions also have explicit sources. A group of rows is a proper subfamily of whole rows and therefore has the product of their λ\lambda laws. Within one row, the union of any two column groups remains a proper column set, so the three rectangular cells of the grouped row are pairwise independent. The column argument is the same. Given all whole rows in PP, the union of any two column groups is a proper column set, so the required conditional independence of grouped columns follows from part (2). Each argument starts from a joint product law for a proper subfamily and then groups coordinates. It does not infer joint independence of three groups from pairwise independence.

7. Conull sets and quantifiers

All state spaces are standard Borel, so regular conditional distributions exist, and a countable generating algebra can determine each probability kernel. Verify a kernel identity first on this determining class, then obtain equality of probability measures on one conull set. This supplies the common set needed to use the identity for bounded tests, beyond separate almost-everywhere statements for individual tests.

There are countably many levels nn. For fixed kk, there are only finitely many parent subsets, projection positions, missing positions, and square groupings; integer time shifts are countable. The required kernel identities can therefore hold simultaneously on a common conull set at each relevant level. When time covariance is needed, intersect over all integer shifts as well.

Random variables at different levels live in different spaces, so common conull sets are understood level by level. At n=2n=2, disintegrating over the law of the full parameter EE gives a conull parameter set. For every EE in that set, the assertions hold almost everywhere under its conditional square law. They need not hold at every state point over that parameter.

The proof does not give any of the following stronger assertions:

  • “Saturation holds for all extensions on one common pointwise conull set.”
  • “Conditional independence automatically survives the addition of parent slots.”
  • “Column independence gives row independence by interchanging the axes.”
  • “The extended TYT_Y is still mixing.”
  • “Product laws for every proper subfamily imply a product law for the complete kk-tuple.”

The source retains mixing only in the XX coordinate. The enlarged system YY is not required to be mixing.

Aside: why column independence alone is insufficient

The following example shows why a shortcut omitting saturation can fail. It is not a counterexample to R, and no claim is made that this finite square extends to the full array tower required there.

Take k=3k=3. Let UaU_a and VaV_a, for a=1,2,3a=1,2,3, together with HH, be seven independent fair bits. With ⊕\oplus denoting addition modulo two, define

ya,1=Ua,ya,2=Va,ya,3=Ua⊕Va⊕H. y_{a,1}=U_a,\quad y_{a,2}=V_a,\quad y_{a,3}=U_a\oplus V_a\oplus H.

The three entries in each row are independent: an output triple in a fixed row uniquely determines UaU_a, VaV_a, and HH, so it has probability 1/8. The three entries in each column are also independent. Any two whole columns are independent. This is immediate for the first two. Given the first column, the third is the independent uniform vector VV translated by a vector, and its uniform law is independent of the first column. The second and third columns are treated in the same way. The parameters may be constant.

Yet the parity ya,1⊕ya,2⊕ya,3y_{a,1}\oplus y_{a,2}\oplus y_{a,3} of every row is the same variable HH. Observing one complete parent row PP therefore determines HH. After the first two whole columns are observed as well, the missing entry of another row AA is

yA,3=yA,1⊕yA,2⊕H. y_{A,3}=y_{A,1}\oplus y_{A,2}\oplus H.

Its conditional law is a point mass. Under the marginal law of row AA alone, given yA,1,yA,2y_{A,1},y_{A,2}, the third entry is still a fair bit. Thus the two sides of (12) can differ in this finite example. The original column product laws do not justify (12). R first derives locality of the conditional kernels from saturation and extensions with smaller parent sets, and then obtains (12). That part of the local argument is necessary.